Category Archives: Χωρίς κατηγορία

In this article I will write about game theory and how we can apply it for our favour to win in casino or bets. The whole analysis should easily fit 100 or even more pages.Here you will find some basics ideas and nothing more.

Lets start by defining and explaining game theory. Game theory involves logical- strategic decisions and maths to optimize the outcome of one event. In betting we may think it is pure randomness and luck ,especially in casino but no. Staking, betting involves you to act, use strategies (see other articles) and more.

Now lets see how we can apply and improve our chances. The most obvious example is poker. Besides the entry fee ,poker doesnt have any edge -in most cases- and we cant eliminate the factor of randomness in every hand as well. But our desicions are heavily involved at the end. Attributes such that psycology ,cards counting(Numerical skills in general),strategical approaching are a must especially in this era.Others examples are roullete and blackjack which are nearly..but NOT SLOTS! FORGET THEM!

Even in betting while margin is as high as 4-5%(in good cases) and you bet in external results ,game theory can be found in turnovers especially in big games or even 2nd tier leagues as players “move the line” in favour of the high-staked team. That is a great way to find some value or just minimalize the house edge in most scenarios(strategy:betwatching-with subscriptions or bots), especially in recent years with the advent of AI and Machine learning that made analyzing data easy. Futhermore, dont forget sure bets and dont neglect the gimmicks there(see at my articles)

NASH equlibrium and algorithms

Whatever i wrote above refers to real life casinos and not the only one, as Nash equlibrium factor is a major thing. You see the algorithm can predict our strategies (1v1 games against computer) and make winning harder. What we can do is to avoid gambling under those conditions.

TO BE CONTINUED..

You would probably think I am insane that i use such titles for an article … Actually thats not a suggestion rather a prohibition for you not fall victims to tricks like this

Sooo a friend of mine texted me and sent me an article of a wannabe tipster who is working at a site called betdays( first time i heard of it) and he is promoting martingale in mundial 2022(football event!) and stuff and the funny thing is he is keeping record so I assume he is gonna fking follow this strategy.(double Martingale on X)

Futhermore, he writes more Bullshit on his article like “it is statistically proven that no tournament has ever witnessed 6 or more matches without a single X, yet in the 2018 mundial there was a sequence of 9 games in arow without X (and it happened twice(!))…Whats more he proposes a bankroll of just 500€ which means that not only didnt he analyzed the last tournament but also if someone start with this amount he will be eliminated of the so called ” profitable strategy” in no fk time!! In additon,he said that” no matter the teams are playing you should stay consistent and trust the process but the chances of one match finish X is more than some other ( for example qatar -equador is more likely to end X than Argentina vs saudi arabia).Last but not least ,he proves he has no idea of online betting as you need stakers and multiples accounts if you want to follow such strategies so that you wont get banned …he didnt even mentioned this scenario so i assume he has never followed it again so how can he promote and advertise such bs if he can’t guarantee a profit thereof

So thats why i am mad at him• he is attempting to transform betting (which involves analyzing and finding value bets or whatever) into gambling….How the heck can one be a tipster in pure mere gambling!!!! Imagine if someone is giving away tips in roullete …would you even follow his advice ???Yet you are following martingale!!!

disclaimer : me myself , used to play martingale a lot but not in football nor in such way like that…martingale is only for games that the chances of winning are ~50% (i dont recommend it however)

Having involved with betting in the past 4 years i have witnessed so many things ,ranging from greedy books to tipster hoaxes

This is an informal article and i will try to be as laconic as possible for anyone to interpret and put my message across, so no any sophisticated or complex structures. It will work as podcast style as i dont have any time nor i want to dedicate an hour of my life exposing scammers

Recently i have read an article from a site called antiopap( i highly recommend) and inspired me to discuss some topics even more.

Part 1 Margin/mistakes and misconceptions

Book margin ,best known as house edge in casino ,is the guarantee profit the book is going to make. For instance, roulette has a margin of ~2% which means you are going to lose in the long run except for you being lucky. However, in sports betting that is not the case…the margin is higher because the element of skill is included too. Therefore opap has a margin of 12% in most games but this number can be increased in least popular leagues lest an expert makes a profit . So i dont think it will come as a surprise to you that the keno (1/80 20 picks) has a 37.5% edge while in most countries is 20% and this high margin makes it virtually impossible to make profit. What is the most dark tactic of this company is it push you to play compo bets and it will” reward” you with 30% bonus win in a 5 pick bet. Little do people know that already the margin is up as high as 60% !!! Unfortunately, thats a common deceit people always fell for and opap makes a huge profit thereof

If you want to reduce the total edge you can try online betting. The odds are higher but they have their own gimmicks to make profit…Limiting account with only small bets ,closing your account if you are inactive for a small period , banning in case of stakers etc.

°Part 2 – “amateur”/bad tipsters

One thing i enjoy doing is sporadically checking what my fellow tipsters suggest or how they are going. I am talking about big companies that are hiring people with little to no knowledge about sports but they are decent at writing articles and b.s …Whatever is new and revolutionary (esports betting) they are going to incorporate it in their picks…To be blunt here ,betarades has a tipster that “gives” esports tips (5 lol tips in a year) and guess what the 60% percent of them are stolen included my picks…do betarades know about it or is something their tipster do and they are oblivious??

Aaand here comes the rise of blade over new just because of previous fame and celebrities promoting him … A person with no abilities when it comes to betting and i really doubt if he has ever watched a football game in his life…i dont follow him i just searched for his tips sometimes and he made it obvious he merely recommend tips from statistics!!! What x goals??? winrate ??? Previous h2h matches???wtf…One of the reason he is a bad tipster and want to deceive people is that he had not a yield tracking his previous bet just fk combo bets from uganda and Malaysia!!…how one can rely on this????for real… Whats more he claims about guarantee fixed games (which are definitely not) …i dont know if he has a premium membership or sth but if he has we need to cancel him…he promotes an unreasonable and bad-in-the-long-run system that you are gonna lose and lose and not to mention journalist that become sport experts promoting martingale or any other risky/gamling strategy( Big greek reporter on mundial 2018 …thst had a losing streak of 9(!!) 2 times in a row. Other tipster have a tactic to publish a pick everyday…and what if you dont have a valuebet and you dont know the teams …you just give it ??or what about finding 2 or more value picks that day??

Part 3- how to beat margin and make profit

The best tipster in the world have a yield around 10% after 500 tips with 13-15% or more is considered to be an elite tipster(imo)

Personally how i try to beat the odds and have an overall decent yield is by picking valuebets that bookies are 5% wrong in the odds and go for asian handicaps (usually line)… speaking of terms of skill i will be winning but what about luck(external results)…

Many times i will lose a bet because i was not lucky enough (even though the team won the xGoals) but we often neglect the scenario of a player being against an open goal and just dont shoot …this will not count in xgoals but the chances are it would have been a certain goal if he had shooted.

Final tip avoid bets such as btts&over or 1X&under as it has double the margin and the possibility of winning is significantly low compared to the actual risk…

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