Having involved with betting in the past 4 years i have witnessed so many things ,ranging from greedy books to tipster hoaxes
This is an informal article and i will try to be as laconic as possible for anyone to interpret and put my message across, so no any sophisticated or complex structures. It will work as podcast style as i dont have any time nor i want to dedicate an hour of my life exposing scammers
Recently i have read an article from a site called antiopap( i highly recommend) and inspired me to discuss some topics even more.
Part 1 Margin/mistakes and misconceptions
Book margin ,best known as house edge in casino ,is the guarantee profit the book is going to make. For instance, roulette has a margin of ~2% which means you are going to lose in the long run except for you being lucky. However, in sports betting that is not the case…the margin is higher because the element of skill is included too. Therefore opap has a margin of 12% in most games but this number can be increased in least popular leagues lest an expert makes a profit . So i dont think it will come as a surprise to you that the keno (1/80 20 picks) has a 37.5% edge while in most countries is 20% and this high margin makes it virtually impossible to make profit. What is the most dark tactic of this company is it push you to play compo bets and it will” reward” you with 30% bonus win in a 5 pick bet. Little do people know that already the margin is up as high as 60% !!! Unfortunately, thats a common deceit people always fell for and opap makes a huge profit thereof
If you want to reduce the total edge you can try online betting. The odds are higher but they have their own gimmicks to make profit…Limiting account with only small bets ,closing your account if you are inactive for a small period , banning in case of stakers etc.
°Part 2 – “amateur”/bad tipsters
One thing i enjoy doing is sporadically checking what my fellow tipsters suggest or how they are going. I am talking about big companies that are hiring people with little to no knowledge about sports but they are decent at writing articles and b.s …Whatever is new and revolutionary (esports betting) they are going to incorporate it in their picks…To be blunt here ,betarades has a tipster that “gives” esports tips (5 lol tips in a year) and guess what the 60% percent of them are stolen included my picks…do betarades know about it or is something their tipster do and they are oblivious??
Aaand here comes the rise of blade over new just because of previous fame and celebrities promoting him … A person with no abilities when it comes to betting and i really doubt if he has ever watched a football game in his life…i dont follow him i just searched for his tips sometimes and he made it obvious he merely recommend tips from statistics!!! What x goals??? winrate ??? Previous h2h matches???wtf…One of the reason he is a bad tipster and want to deceive people is that he had not a yield tracking his previous bet just fk combo bets from uganda and Malaysia!!…how one can rely on this????for real… Whats more he claims about guarantee fixed games (which are definitely not) …i dont know if he has a premium membership or sth but if he has we need to cancel him…he promotes an unreasonable and bad-in-the-long-run system that you are gonna lose and lose and not to mention journalist that become sport experts promoting martingale or any other risky/gamling strategy( Big greek reporter on mundial 2018 …thst had a losing streak of 9(!!) 2 times in a row. Other tipster have a tactic to publish a pick everyday…and what if you dont have a valuebet and you dont know the teams …you just give it ??or what about finding 2 or more value picks that day??
Part 3- how to beat margin and make profit
The best tipster in the world have a yield around 10% after 500 tips with 13-15% or more is considered to be an elite tipster(imo)
Personally how i try to beat the odds and have an overall decent yield is by picking valuebets that bookies are 5% wrong in the odds and go for asian handicaps (usually line)… speaking of terms of skill i will be winning but what about luck(external results)…
Many times i will lose a bet because i was not lucky enough (even though the team won the xGoals) but we often neglect the scenario of a player being against an open goal and just dont shoot …this will not count in xgoals but the chances are it would have been a certain goal if he had shooted.
Final tip avoid bets such as btts&over or 1X&under as it has double the margin and the possibility of winning is significantly low compared to the actual risk…
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